Potential 2024 Rematch Seen as Close Race Amid Voter Dissatisfaction


  1. Trump leads Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchups in 5 of 6 battleground states, with Biden leading only in Wisconsin (NY Times)

  2. Biden’s support down among young, Black, and Hispanic voters compared to 2020 (NY Times, Guardian)

  3. Majority say Biden is too old and lacks mental sharpness to be effective president (Siena)

  4. Voters think Trump policies have helped them personally, Biden policies have hurt (Siena)

  5. Biden trails generic Democrat if he doesn’t run; Democrat leads Trump by 3-12 points (Siena)

Trump, Biden, polls

Perspective 1:

Biden is trailing Trump in hypothetical 2024 election matchups, facing dissatisfaction from voters on issues like the economy and concerns about his age and mental sharpness. He is losing support among key demographic groups like young, Black, and Hispanic voters compared to 2020.

Perspective 2:

Trump continues to poll competitively despite legal troubles, retaining strong support in the Republican party. Voters believe his policies have helped them personally. A generic Democrat leads Trump in hypothetical matchups, indicating Biden specifically is a weak candidate.

Perspective 3 + Others

Third party or independent candidates could play a spoiler role, with some polls showing them winning significant vote share.Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West running as independents, and No Labels attempting a centrist third party bid. Their impact is unpredictable.

Global Perspective:


According to the New York Times, polls show President Biden trailing former President Trump in hypothetical 2024 matchups in 5 of 6 key battleground states that Biden won in 2020, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden only leads Trump in Wisconsin based on the NYT/Siena polls. Voters say they trust Trump more than Biden to handle issues like the economy, immigration and national security. Biden only leads on abortion rights. The polls reveal Biden’s multiracial coalition from 2020 fraying, with his support down sharply among young, Black and Hispanic voters.

The Siena poll found that across 6 battleground states 59% disapprove of Biden’s job performance as president. 71% say he is too old and 62% say he lacks the mental sharpness to be an effective president. In contrast, only 38% say Trump is too old. 53% think Trump has the mental sharpness to be effective. Voters said Trump’s policies have helped them personally while Biden’s policies have hurt them. A generic Democrat leads Trump by 3-12 points according to Siena.

According to the Guardian, polls show deep dissatisfaction among voters with both Biden and Trump as 2024 frontrunners. Leading pollsters describe the mood as disdainful, with many wanting neither to run. Biden and Trump both have glaring political liabilities in voters’ eyes. Trump dominates the GOP primary despite never accepting his 2020 defeat and facing multiple indictments. Biden is asking voters to keep him through age 86 despite concerns about his age and polls showing him trailing Trump.

CBS News polling reveals Trump with advantages over Biden on issues like keeping the US out of war and helping voters financially. CBS found Biden’s Democratic base shakier than Trump’s Republican one. CNN characterized the race as close but noted Biden’s reelection bid faces considerable challenges including questions on his age. Biden’s campaign downplayed the polls, saying predictions are unreliable this far out.